OSCAR WHINGE
VIDEO and satellite analyses suggest that Iran’s missile and drone attack – in retaliation for the Zionist regime’s attack on its consulate in Damascus on April 1 – had more direct hits than interceptions, casting doubt on Israel’s reported 99 percent interception rate.
This is borne out by the opinions of experts such as Professor Mohammad Marandi from the University of Tehran, Scott Ritter, Alexander Mercouri, Gideon Levi of Haaretz, and other analysts who gave their insights on Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone attack on Israel on April 13.
Despite Israel’s claim of a 99 percent interception rate of Iran’s drone missiles, they were unable to intercept the ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
This was despite being equipped with the best ballistic defence system that their joint resources could afford.
Engaging in psychological warfare tactics, Iran had even given a warning to the Western powers about their impending attack, focusing solely on military targets.
Iran declared its intention to attack several days before submitting a letter to the United Nations and presenting all evidence of the impending assault.
This unexpected announcement was a departure from the typical stealth and surprise tactics that often accompany such attacks.
In response, both the US and Israel were able to strengthen their anti-ballistic defence measures.
According to Scott Ritter, Iran conferred with the CIA Director, William Burns, who authorised Iran to carry out the attack on Israel, on the condition that no civilian casualties occur.
Iran then made the surprising decision to announce to the public that they were releasing slow, noisy drones that would loudly proclaim, ‘Here we come for five hours’. This unexpected move gave the US, Britain, and France ample time to prepare their aircraft.
Such a brazen display of aggression by the West left many questioning the motives behind Iran’s peculiar tactics.
Despite this, Iran still managed to fire seven missiles at Nevatim airbase, with five hitting their target.
New reports reveal that Iran’s missiles hit not only Nevatim but also Hermon and Ramon airbases. Contrary to Israel’s claims of intercepting seven missiles, at least four hit the Ramon base.
Video and satellite analyses suggest more direct hits than interceptions, casting doubt on Israel’s reported 99 percent interception rate.
Analysts now believe Israel’s real intercept rate was around 84 percent. Israel admitted to the Nevatim damage only after reports of it went viral.
What the world witnessed was Iran breaking through the most advanced air defence system in the world and touching Nevatim in a way that people understood that they had been touched. They hit the runway in two spots: a warehouse, three other facilities, and air defence systems. At least two iron dome systems were taken out, and they won’t talk about this. Iran wanted Israel to know that they could penetrate their defences with their old weaponry, hinting at the potential devastation their sophisticated weapons could cause.
We now have a clearer understanding of Iran’s accomplishments. They successfully targeted a prominent control centre in Tel Aviv, yet Israel has chosen to remain silent on the matter. Nevatim, renowned for its superior anti-ballistic missile defences, is the most heavily defended space on earth.
It is specifically designed to counter Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles, a fact well known to the Iranian military.
In response, Iran has enhanced its capabilities by developing warheads that separate upon detection, complicating radar systems’ ability to discern between the primary missile body and smaller warheads.
One of the targets, an Israeli intelligence facility in the Golan Heights, experienced significant damage.
Situated at a high vantage point, this facility is instrumental in gathering intelligence on events in Syria.
The Israeli media has been prohibited from reporting or discussing this incident. The extensive damage inflicted by Iran on Israeli airbases, including the destruction of key radar systems and control centres, has dealt a significant blow to Israel’s security.
This attack revealed vulnerabilities in Israel’s defence system, which Iran exploited to breach even the most heavily fortified areas.
By employing advanced tactics to overcome sophisticated air defence systems, Iran delivered a clear message to both Israel and the US that their defences were lacking.
This is a game-changing event. It told the Israelis that they no longer have deterrence superiority, that Israel no longer has a blank check to do whatever it wants to do in the Middle East, and that if Israel ever again attacks Iran or Iranian interests surrounding Iran, the Iranian retaliation will be immediate and overwhelming.
It flipped the script on deterrence supremacy. Iran now holds deterrence supremacy not only against Israel but also against the US.
The US betrayed their Israeli ally because Iran warned them that participating in the attack would result in every American base in the region being levelled by Iranian ballistic missiles. The US was aware of Iran’s capability to deliver on this promise, as evidenced by their 2020 experience with the Al Assad airbase and the assassination of Qassim Suleimani.
This threat, backed by Iran’s previous actions, including the retaliation for the assassination of Qassim Suleimani, demonstrated Iran’s capability to follow through on its promises.
This event highlighted the changing dynamics in the Middle East and the need for all parties to reassess their strategies in the region.
For this reason, the USA made it clear to Israel that while they would support defending against the Iranian missiles, they would not take part in any retaliatory actions from Israel. The US told Israel, ‘You are on your own.’
There is ongoing posturing following Netanyahu’s erratic behaviour, with Biden indicating a lack of support for him. However, Netanyahu appears undeterred.
Biden also cannot risk a conflict with Iran due to potential energy security implications. The strategic petrol reserve is currently below seventeen days of economic viability under Biden’s leadership, should Iran block the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel is suggesting that they may initiate a war regardless, assuming Biden will come along with them.
Iran has showcased its ability to strike targets of its choosing and retaliate on a massive scale. The country possesses the necessary capabilities to do so effectively.
Three strategic locations and multiple secondary targets related to Israeli missile defence systems were targeted by Iranian forces.
Despite the initial slow-moving missiles being easily detected, they effectively pinpointed Israel’s air defence infrastructure.
The two bases sustained substantial damage, even though Iran did not use its most advanced weaponry. Iran boasts a substantial arsenal of drones and missiles.
The attack targeted two airbases, with one housing the US’s sophisticated radar system, the ANTPY-2 X-band radar.
This radar, positioned at Nevatim for over a decade, is crucial for detecting Iranian ballistic missile launches and is integrated with the American ballistic missile defence system. Additionally, the US installed the ANTPY-2 X-band radar alongside the FAD missile system and advanced Patriot missiles.
These systems are coordinated with Israel’s Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, David’s Sling, and the Iron Dome. Furthermore, the US Navy deployed at least two Aegis-equipped destroyers with the capability to track and shoot down missiles.
Despite these robust defences, Iran managed to launch an attack that circumvented all defensive measures.
Tehran has indicated that in future attacks, they will employ previously unused weapons, including a formidable array of anti-aircraft missiles, in response to an Israeli attack.
In the event that Israel responds to the Iranian attack, it will likely be in an effort to uphold its reputation.
The criticism of Israel’s billion-dollar expenditure in a single night to intercept Iranian drones, each worth only a few thousand dollars, highlights the perceived wastefulness of such actions.
If Iran were to deploy a larger number of drones, it would undoubtedly put Israel’s defensive capabilities to the test.
Additionally, with Iran possessing tens of thousands of missiles and access to advanced technologies comparable to those of the United States, the threat of using previously unused weapons in response to Israeli aggression demonstrates Iran’s determination to assert dominance.
The significant financial cost of defending against Iran’s attacks, along with the potential for overwhelming numbers of drones and missiles, underscores the impracticality of Israel’s defensive strategy.
Iran’s potential to surpass the US in technological capabilities further tilts the balance of power in the region.
Iran’s objective is clear: to reset deterrence superiority away from Israel. With the threat of further escalation looming, both Israel and the US faced a new reality where their previous dominance was no longer assured.
On April 18th, Israel finally responded and launched an attack on Iran, targeting the city of Isfahan.
Three drones were shot down near Isfahan airport, while Iran’s air defence system also downed three small drones over Tehran.
The city of Tabriz was also targeted, but no damage was reported. US official Dr. Howard Stoer stated that Israel initially planned a massive attack on Iran but was urged by Biden and other leaders to reconsider.
This was because they believed that the success of the defensive measures against the Iranian onslaught would be seen as a victory for Israel.
According to him, 99 percent of the drones used in the attack were intercepted without causing significant damage.
Despite this, it seems unlikely that Netanyahu would have been swayed by advice, given his reputation for aggressive tactics.
In a meeting with the British delegates, Netanyahu stated that Israel would make its own decisions. According to Brett Sadler, a senior fellow for national defence, Israel’s decision to strike was based on its own assessment.
The somewhat restrained nature of the attack indicates that Netanyahu may be feeling uncertain about committing to a full-scale war with Iran, possibly in response to the aggressive Iranian offensive.
This hesitation marks a shift from his usual approach, indicating a potential change in his confidence levels. This tilts the scale in favour of Iran. Now it is Iran’s turn to respond, and they have indicated that they will do so.
- Oscar Whinge is the author of The Word Factory.
