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As global aid declines and geopolitics shift, South Africa faces tough choices in 2026. Can diplomacy, BRICS and reform shape a fairer world?
By ASHRAF PATEL
South Africa faces a brave new world in 2026. A quarter of a century has passed since the United Nations declared the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Yet, despite these ambitions, the majority of African nations have failed to achieve their sustainable development objectives.
Although South Africa hosted a symbolically successful G20 summit in 2025, its subsequent disinvitation and barring from the G20 meeting in the United States in 2026 is a stark reminder of today’s disruptive and volatile geopolitical order. Nevertheless, South Africa still has a range of strategic options rooted in Global South solidarity and multilateral cooperation.
The termination of funding under USAID and the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (Pepfar), coupled with the confirmation of Leo Bozell III – a staunch MAGA loyalist – as the new US ambassador to South Africa, is likely to intensify Washington’s pressure on Pretoria. Last week, Sweden also announced the end of development aid to four African nations, redirecting those funds towards Ukraine. Official Development Assistance (ODA) as a percentage of GDP is in rapid decline as the European Union and the United Kingdom prioritise increased military spending.
These converging crises, however, present opportunities for reflection and strategic recalibration.
Expanding African outreach and rebuilding trust
Since the dawn of democracy, South Africa was widely regarded as a continental leader. The launch of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad) in 2002, under the leadership of presidents such as Thabo Mbeki, and anchored within the newly formed African Union (AU), promised to free Africa from the ‘yoke of dependency’. Yet the opposite appears to be unfolding.
Over the past decade, South Africa’s standing on the continent has steadily eroded. Its partisan and poorly managed involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo–Rwanda conflict damaged relations with key stakeholders. South Africa failed to act as a trusted mediator, resulting in significant loss of life and considerable cost to taxpayers. External actors, notably the United States and Qatar, subsequently stepped in, assumed the mediation role, and swiftly secured lucrative mining deals.
Ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia–Eritrea, northern Mozambique, and the Sahel’s jihadist insurgency pose existential threats to several African states. Amid declining United Nations budgets for peacekeeping on the continent, South Africa and its global partners must do more to fulfil the AU and UN mandate to ‘Silence the Guns’.
Broadening BRICS development and green industrialisation opportunities
For more than a decade, South Africa has benefited from its core membership in BRICS. This positioning offers tangible opportunities, ranging from digital industrial development and pandemic response platforms to infrastructure finance through the New Development Bank (NDB).
However, with the expansion of BRICS Plus – including new members such as Ethiopia and Egypt, and the possible accession of Nigeria in 2026 – South Africa will need to work harder to safeguard its influence within an increasingly competitive bloc. This requires greater diplomatic investment and a renewed commitment to BRICS as a strategic vehicle for green industrial development, multilateral reform, peace and security cooperation, and enhanced agricultural and health systems.
Advocating for genuine reform of the WTO and international financial institutions
While recent G20 declarations were aspirational, the real challenge lies in meaningful institutional reform. With US trade and tariff wars expected to continue into 2026, a functional and equitable World Trade Organisation (WTO) is more critical than ever.
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South Africa should strengthen engagement within the G77 and the African Negotiating Group (AGN) to push for substantive reform at the next WTO Ministerial Conference in March 2026 in Yaoundé, Cameroon. Major blocs are already lobbying for narrow interests. The United States, for example, has expressed frustration with the WTO’s consensus-based system, arguing that it obstructs plurilateral agreements that allow select members to strike exclusive deals.
Washington is also advocating for an end to the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) principle, despite broad global support for retaining it. Reform of WTO investment and agriculture agreements is urgently needed to prioritise development and fair trade. The current impasse around the EU–Mercosur agreement, particularly over agricultural subsidies and dumping, once again underscores that food security remains central to global trade negotiations.
Africa continues to face a triple burden: high food prices, unsustainable debt levels, and low agricultural productivity, compounded by limited land reform.
Similarly, the G20’s failure to advance meaningful reform of international financial institutions (IFIs) and deliver a comprehensive ‘debt deal for Africa’ remains a critical shortcoming. Increased Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), expanded quotas, a global cost-of-capital commission, and affordable green finance – as outlined in the UN COP30 Belém declarations – require urgent and sustained attention.
Growing the Hague Group and the Non-Aligned Movement as new nodes of multilateralism
Escalating global and regional conflicts, alongside the UN system’s inability to enforce peace, have created space for emerging middle powers – including Colombia, Malaysia, Spain, and South Africa – to demonstrate principled leadership rooted in the UN Charter.
The formation of the Hague Group has emerged as one of the most significant developments of 2025. High-profile cases at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC), particularly concerning Gaza, have catalysed a coalition of states demanding accountability and systemic reform, in line with the UN Pact for the Future.
The contradictions exposed by the Israel–Palestine conflict, the Russia–Ukraine war, and multiple African civil wars reveal an increasingly selective application of international law. Development assistance is shrinking, while a more Hobbesian global order – where brute power overrides norms – takes hold. The foundations of the UN system are under unprecedented strain.
Is another world possible?
If so, how will emerging middle powers co-shape and reimagine a new global order rooted in the principles of the UN Charter and the Pact for the Future?
ASHRAF PATEL is a senior research associate with the Institute for Global Dialogue (IGD), University of South Africa (Unisa).
