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The US and Israeli attacks on Iran in light of regime change rhetoric, oil politics and the historical shadow of the 1953 coup.
By YUSUF ISMAIL
And so we are back here again with a repeat of Iraq 101 all over again and the same lies and deceptions that follow through.
Like the invasion of Iraq, an attack on Iran has a secret agenda that has nothing to do with the Tehran regime’s imaginary weapons of mass destruction. The co-ordinated strikes by the United States and Israel these past few days constitute nothing more than a violation of international law at a fundamental level, and at all levels a criminal terrorist attack on another sovereign nation state.
Hark at the irony of Donald Trump labelling an old disabled 86-year-old man as one of the most evil in history; rings hollow particularly in the light of the Epstein files which reveal the paedophile class and the members behind this lot of individuals, engaged in the most vicious kind of war crimes in modern history.
This brings attention to Wag the Dog, a satirical film from 1997 where a spin doctor (Robert De Niro) and a Hollywood producer (Dustin Hoffman) fabricate a fake war with Albania to distract the public from a presidential sex scandal days before an election.
The difference today is that reality is a far darker and pernicious form of activity involving a president implicated in a massive and infinitesimally larger child sex and child trafficking scandal in documents, 80 per cent of which still have to be released; and a real war in which 86 schoolchildren and some 200 Iranian civilians in total to date have been slaughtered by US military and Israeli air strikes. As the days go by and the strikes (read terrorist attacks by the United States and Israel continue), the numbers of dead will inevitably increase, many of which will be women and children; all of which will be excused as usual collateral damage or worse still, human shields. We have heard the same storybook repeated again and again.
Two days earlier before the attack on Iran commenced, an intense round of negotiated meanderings concluded in Geneva, with both sides willing to continue. Trump indicated he would give negotiators more time. But all of a sudden came the bombings. Israel said the strikes were ‘preventive’, meaning they were to prevent Iran from developing a capacity to be a nuclear threat similar to the lies about Iraq. But preventive war has no legal basis under international law. The UN Security Council did not authorise any military action and the trajectory of using force for self-defence has to be pursued at all levels before any strike occurs in any capacity whatsoever.
Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. Pre-emptive self-defence is just not allowed in the given circumstances with Iran. It requires a threat to be ‘instant, overwhelming, and leaving no choice of means’. No such conditions existed with Iran on February 28. Israel, on the other hand, has flagrantly violated every single rule book of international law and has attacked four countries in the Middle East in three years. It remains the only nuclear power in the Middle East; is being tried at the International Court of Justice for genocide. It further remains a perpetual pariah and threat as an eternal and last remaining apartheid state with a policy that encompasses mass murdering children and women and raping women and men in custody as detailed by the shocking B’Tselem report, ‘Welcome to Hell’. Yet in typical Orwellian fashion, Israel is portrayed as a besieged victim and forces the United States to do its bidding in typical belligerent style that the United States has been known for decades.
The contradictions and lies follow day after day. Eight months ago Trump blatantly said that Iran’s nuclear capability was utterly destroyed. The claim was that Iran would need another three years to build a nuclear weapon capable of posing a threat. Now eight months later, the weapons of mass destruction lies now ring a bit shallow and the in-your-face turnaround by Trump is ‘regime change’. Attacking the sovereignty of another country is arguably the greatest war crime. And regime change will never work in Iran in any capacity, shape or form. It will bite the United States unlike any other. In any event, forcible regime change violates the foundational principles of state sovereignty and non-intervention under the UN Charter. But we have been here before with Iran and the United States.
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In August 1953, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and British intelligence orchestrated a coup (Operation Ajax) to overthrow Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. Motivated by the nationalisation of the oil industry and Cold War fears, the US installed the Shah as a dictator, causing long-term anti-American sentiment and fuelling the 1979 Revolution. The nationalisation of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now BP) and fears that instability would lead to a communist takeover drove this intervention. The CIA, led by Kermit Roosevelt Jr, funded riots, bribed politicians, and staged propaganda to create the appearance of popular opposition to Mosaddegh. Mosaddegh was imprisoned and placed under house arrest for life. The Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, solidified his power, ruling as a US-backed authoritarian tyrant and dictator for 26 years. The coup is widely regarded as a key event in shaping negative US-Iran relations, fostering anti-American sentiment that led to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. According to the Harvard Business School study, the coup is often cited as a prime example of the United States prioritising geopolitical interests and oil access over democratic, local government in the Middle East.
That interest in Iran’s oil has never actually wavered and with a narcissistic maniac such as Trump in power, greed and the potential for more accumulation of natural reserves and wealth simply skyrocket. Iran’s major oil fields are primarily concentrated in the southwestern province of Khuzestan and in the Persian Gulf offshore, with key sites including Ahvaz, Gachsaran, Marun, and the massive South Pars gas-condensate field. These areas account for the bulk of Iran’s production. Based on estimates as of early 2026, the total potential value of Iran’s oil, gas, and mineral reserves is estimated at approximately $27 trillion. Iran holds the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves, estimated at roughly 208 to 209 billion barrels. Iran has the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, at 34 trillion cubic metres, accounting for about 17 per cent of the global total. Enhanced gas re-injection could increase the oil recovery rate, potentially adding around 20 billion barrels to extractable reserves, with a value exceeding $1.5 trillion. Even despite sanctions, Iran exported oil worth approximately $67 billion in 2025. That is the great treasure Trump and his henchman want.
Yusuf Ismail is a criminal defence lawyer and founder of the South African Debate Initiative.
