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‘When you want to be accepted by the forces of coloniality, then you end up wanting to appease the enemy. And that’s what [Jolani] is doing.’
By YASEEN BARDIEN
It is now just over two months after the Bashar al-Assad regime collapsed during a major offensive spearheaded by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with the support of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. Assad was forced to flee on December 8, 2024 and found asylum in Russia.
While the fall of Assad has ushered in a new era for the country, does it finally end the turmoil in the country which reached its peak during the civil war that began in 2011?
Assad’s removal closed the chapter on more than 50-years’ of family rule over Syria, a reign that began with Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad. Given that the HTS leadership was incubated in the self-designated Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), it may be too early to predict whether the HTS leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani – who has now rebranded himself under his original name, Ahmed al-Sharaa – has totally moved away from his intolerant past. He is sometimes disparagingly referred to as ‘ISIL in suits’, recalling his days when he operated under a nom de guerre.
With foreign powers continuing to play a key role, their influence places Syria in a fluid and volatile situation. In the aftermath of Assad’s fall, the Zionist state took advantage and launched airstrikes on Syria. The muted response to these attacks by Jolani left many observers with the foreboding feeling that under the HTS leadership the Genocidal regime had now found a compliant neighbour. During the Assads’, most of the parties to the Palestinian liberation struggle had found safe haven and a base for operations against the Zionist state.
Jordan and Iraq have committed themselves to continue to fight remnants of ISIL and groups aligned to them, if they were to launch attacks on their soil.
The United States, while pronouncing that it would consider withdrawing its forces, still maintains a strong military presence in the region, and could well move in to positions that Russia has been forced to vacate.
While Jolani’s first foreign visit was to Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on February 2, it is Turkey that has emerged as the clear winner and hence the key outside influence to determine the path ahead for Syria.
Jolani met with the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on February 4 where they discussed ‘joint steps that can be taken to establish security and economic stability’ in Syria. Erdogan added: ‘I am pleased to see that we are in full agreement on almost every issue.’ Jolani, in his speech, said that his aim was to raise Syria’s relations with Turkey to the level of ‘deep strategic co-operation’.
The two major backers of the Assad regime were Iran and Russia.
Iran has almost no direct influence since Assad’s fall. However, Iran still sees Syria as a strategic base, particularly in supporting its allies in the region, including Hezbollah and Hamas, to maintain the Axis of Resistance against the Zionist regime.
Meanwhile, Russia is negotiating with Syria to retain control over two military facilities, the Hmeimim Air Base and the Tartus port, ensuring that they still have a foothold within the region. But as these talks continue, observers note that Russia is withdrawing some of its military equipment from these bases.
While the fall the of the autocratic Assad is widely lauded, statements on the Zionist state and US influence in the region have come under the microscope.
Jolani was quick to congratulate Donald Trump after the latter’s inauguration as President, believing that Trump can restore peace to the Middle East.
He is also looking to avoid conflict with Israel. However, that in itself is challenging with Israel’s continued occupation of the Golan Heights, territory which resides in Syria.
Dr Ahmed Haroon Jazbhay, an executive member of the Johannesburg-based Media Review Network, believes that Jolani is pragmatic in his approach, as he is trying to appease everyone – even those who may be perceived as enemies – while adjusting to his new role.
‘When you want to be accepted by the forces of coloniality, then you end up wanting to appease the enemy. And that’s what he’s doing. He is appeasing; he wants acceptance for his rule in Syria. He feels that the path towards political, socio-economic and political stability in Syria is via appeasement of regional countries and in that sense he has been pragmatic.’
While there is plenty of discussion regarding foreign powers and Syria’s new leader, foregrounded should be the real victims of this conflict, the Syrian people. Millions of them displaced, lives shattered and livelihoods destroyed. Refugees are returning to a place, while familiar in name, is in reality much different to what they had left behind.
A webinar, titled ‘Unpacking the Syrian Imbroglio’ was held by the Mapungubwe: Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA). Led by Na’eem Jeenah, he painted a comprehensive picture of the Syrian conflict and possible future scenarios for the country.
In a follow up interview Jeenah, a senior MISTRA researcher with expertise in Middle Eastern affairs, says the initial responses from governments following Assad’s ousting were muted. Meanwhile, he adds that the Syrian people themselves are cautious but they are hopeful for a better future.
‘The vast majority of Syrians, both inside and outside Syria, seem to be much more optimistic. In Europe, they are optimistic but cautious. Optimistic because Assad’s gone. Cautious because they don’t know what the new guys will be doing.’
As the newly appointed interim president, Jolani faces monumental challenges, including rebuilding a shattered economy, addressing the needs of millions of displaced Syrians and fostering national reconciliation. A meeting, held by European Foreign Ministers, took place on January 27 in Brussels to discuss potential easing of the sanctions.
Following the meeting, the European Union (EU) outlined a roadmap to ease the sanctions, which will assist with rebuilding Syria.
‘One of the big issues, or points of leverage that many of these Western countries have, is the sanctions. It has been quite devastating, even in the Assad era. With the reconstruction that is required, an economy that is devastated needs to be revived. The lifting of the sanctions is critical for all of those things to happen,’ said Jeenah.
Meanwhile, Dr Jazbhay adds that just removing the sanctions won’t be the immediate solution as Syria has a low starting point.
‘You can lift sanctions overnight, but the institutions of states are quite weak. The regional powers will be giving assistance, but selective assistance in ways that do not threaten their interest as well. You’re going to have to start from a low base and that is the problem for Syria,’ said Jazbhay.
Two months since Assad’s fall and there are still many issues that need attention, both internally and externally. However, Jeenah believes that there is a route to help foster peace and reconciliation but it relies on Syria’s new leaders to avoid a delay in the reconstruction programme.
‘If all of the things that Sharaa and his lieutenants have been saying are actually put into practice, peace is not something that’s going to be far away.
‘The bigger challenge would be the reconstruction and resettling. If the reconstruction programme is delayed, then this mood starts turning sour. I think that that could also have a negative impact on the attempts for reconciliation,’ emphasised Jeenah.
There is a long road ahead for Syria. However, for the sake of the Syrian people, Jolani and his team must prioritise peace as Syria cannot afford another war.
